Курс доллара продолжает падать

[acid]

С чем это связано? И к добру ли это?

[HOB]

А курс драма остается на уровне ~ четырехлетней давности

Oxford Analytica Russia/CIS Daily Brief(c)
Wednesday, July 14, 2004

ARMENIA: Real GDP growth fell to 8.9% year-on-year during
January-May. Maintaining high economic growth rates is important
in an economy that has still not recovered its 1989 GDP level.
Armenia's economy is small -- GDP was 780 million dollars in
January-May -- resulting in volatility and vulnerability to
downturns in a few sectors. Further growth is expected from
construction and the development of the rural infrastructure. See
CISDB, July 14, 2004, I.


I ARMENIA: Slowing growth

EVENT: Real GDP increased by 8.9% year-on-year during January-May,
it was reported on July 9.

SIGNIFICANCE: Maintaining high economic growth rates is important
in an economy that has still not recovered its 1989 GDP level.
Although the 2003 gross national income per capita of about 870
dollars is higher than in Azerbaijan or Georgia, it is below
average for Europe-Central Asia.

ANALYSIS: The real GDP growth rate of 8.9% for the first five
months of 2004 is a sharp decrease from the two-digit growth rates
of the two previous years -- in January-May 2003, the economy grew
by 13.9%. Growth was led by construction (15.1% year-on-year);
agricultural gross production increased by 6.5% and industrial
output by just 3.3%, with leading sectors performing poorly.

A novel phenomenon this year was the rise in the GDP deflator to
6.6% from about 4.0% in 2003. This was mainly due to an increase
in producer prices in industry, especially in metallurgy, food and
chemicals. Jewellery producer prices grew by 8.2%, but output
growth remained negative even at current prices.

Domestic economy. In real terms, industrial output grew
year-on-year only in March and April. Output fell in metallurgy
and in the jewellery sector, which failed to acquire the expected
amount of raw diamonds from Russia. However, chemical production
quadrupled, owing to the rehabilitation of the Nairit plant.
Russia's Volgaburmash, which during the past year has managed
Nairit and invested 12 million dollars in its modernisation, takes
over soon. The important food sector grew by 8.8%, and mining by
4.0%. Mining now comprises 15.7% of Armenian industry, compared
with 11.0% for the whole of 2003, whereas the share of
manufacturing has fallen from 66.8% to 62.8%.

Construction has continued to grow, despite the completion of the
large construction projects supported by the Lincy foundation of
US-Armenian tycoon Kirk Kerkorian. Its year-on-year results are
all the better given that in January-May 2003 construction had
already grown by nearly 50% compared with the year-earlier period.
Its share in GDP is now 8.9%, from 8.6% in Jan-May 2003 and 5.6%
in the first quarter of 2002.

External sector. Exports in the first five months were worth
274.4 million dollars and imports 511.5 million, growing
respectively by 8.0% and 7.6% year-on-year. These growth rates
are lower than the average values for the past two years, when
they were typically above 10% (see CISDB, June 9, 2004, I.).
However, these values vary greatly from month to month.

Investment inflows and unilateral inward transfers have more than
offset the trade deficit, sending the Armenian dram up against
other currencies. It has returned to end-2000 levels against the
dollar, in June averaging 544 to the dollar, a nominal
appreciation of 7.0% year-on-year. This is mostly due to rising
private transfers from abroad. In the first quarter of 2004 (the
latest period for which data are available), transfers amounted to
51 million dollars, or 78% more than a year earlier. This trend
started in 2003, when transfers were worth 225 million dollars, 52
million more than in 2002. This inflow has a large influence on
household spending and consumer prices. Retail trade turnover
increased by 17.2%, population monetary incomes by 17.6% and
household expenditure by 17.4%. The consumer price index rose
year-on-year by 7.7% over January-May.

State budget. Budgetary performance is continuing to improve,
with tax and custom revenues for the five months rising by 22%,
against a forecast 16%. Officials attribute this mainly to
improvements in the tax administration. Collection of profits tax
has jumped by 71%, after legislative amendments aimed at reducing
evasion. Formerly, companies paid profits tax in April, on the
basis of the previous year's results, and collection was very low
(8.6% of total revenues in Jan-May 2003). Now, companies pay
advances on tax every month, at a rate of 1% of sales,
irrespective of real profits. Final settlements between taxpayers
and the tax authority are made once a year on the basis of the
actual profit or loss in the preceding year, and will be made for
the first time in 2005. Nevertheless, this tax still only
provided 12% of the total collected in Jan-May 2004. This is
generally believed to be due to evasion, although a group of large
companies made big losses last year, including those providing
energy, water and other public services.

Investment. Bank credits amounted to 120 billion drams (228
million dollars) by the end of May, compared with 92 billion a
year earlier. Average interest rates have fallen to 15.8% from
19.9% last May. Major targets of private investment are in
central Yerevan, where domestic and foreign inflows have led to a
rapid growth in real estate prices, nearly doubling in a year.

Some large industrial investments are expected this year:

-- Zangezur copper-molybdenum plant. This is to be privatised
for about 130 million dollars. After an initial tender, two
unnamed bidders are on the shortlist.

-- Vanadzor chemical complex. This plant, capable of producing
fibres and other chemicals, is owned by Russia's
Zakneftegaz-Prometei, which has failed to reactivate it.
Slovak SLZ, of the Dividend Group, has expressed interest in
taking over the plant, but no details have been made
available of the negotiations.

-- Iran gas pipeline. There are as yet no known investors in
this project (see CISDB, June 2, 2004, I.).

Outlook. GDP growth is expected to be no lower than the state
budget's 7% target, although this is lower than recent record
growth. Construction is expected to continue to grow over the
whole year, and even act as a driver for the whole economy.
Private housing and industrial construction together comprise
86.4% of construction funding. State-funded projects are also
expected:

-- Budget. The state is financing the repair of
infrastructure. In addition to more than 12 billion drams
allocated in the 2004 budget for construction, the
government has saved another 12 billion drams from the
previous budget. In June, the 2004 budget was amended to
allocate these funds to rebuild rural schools and roads.

-- World Bank. In June, the Bank's board of directors adopted
a new three-year country assistance strategy (CAS) for
Armenia worth a total of 220 million dollars. The CAS will
focus on improving the business environment to create more
jobs, promote better governance, and improve health,
education and basic infrastructure. Special attention will
be paid to rural development. Contrary to previous
assistance strategies, it includes only investment projects
(it lacks structural adjustment credits allocated to cover
budget deficits).

-- Iran. Building the gas pipeline, at an estimated cost of
140 million dollars, starts by September.

-- US Millennium Challenge Account. Armenia is among 16
countries recognised as eligible for this programme and
plans to attract funds mainly for developing rural areas --
roads, dams, irrigation systems, schools and hospitals. It
hopes to receive some 100 million dollars in the 2004
financial year, and 700 million for the whole five-year
programme.

The agriculture sector is expected to perform better this year
than in 2003. Tourism and software production are among the
sectors in which rapid growth is expected.

CONCLUSION: Armenia's economy is small -- GDP was 780 million
dollars in January-May -- resulting in volatility and
vulnerability to downturns in a few sectors. Current growth,
though slower than in recent years, is strong, and further growth
is expected from construction and the development of the rural
infrastructure.

Keywords: EE, RUCIS, Armenia, Caucasus, Iran, Russia, United
States, economy, industry, agriculture, aid, balance of
payments, capital flows, chemical, construction,
exchange rate, fiscal, foreign investment, foreign
trade, gas, growth, infrastructure, investment,
manufacturing, metals, mining, monetary, prices,
private sector, utilities

[Mono]

Наверное кто то принес очень большиую партию долларов в Армению и меняет их на драмы. Может какая то организация которая в ближайшем будущем намеревается делать большие расходы. Например устраивать революцию. В грузий тоже перед революцией лари резко поднялся.

Хотя может я и ошибаюсь. Может уже Крах доллара начинается. Эпоха доллара подходит к закту господа

[Tivin]

А мы роджик в долларах получаем, мля

[Solger]

blin ja v mesjac terjau priblizitel'no 25.000 dram (po sravneniju proshlim godom) iza kursa dollara, a ved' ceni na tavari ne sni}|{ajutsja SVOLOCHI

dollar, dollar grjaznaja zelennaja buma}|{ka (c) V. }|{irinovsky

[greka]

Originally Posted by Mono

Наверное кто то принес очень большиую партию долларов в Армению и меняет их на драмы. Может какая то организация которая в ближайшем будущем намеревается делать большие расходы. Например устраивать революцию. В грузий тоже перед революцией лари резко поднялся.

Хотя может я и ошибаюсь. Может уже Крах доллара начинается. Эпоха доллара подходит к закту господа

никакого краха доллара, это в Армении крах, потому что решили сбить цену - в России та же цена.

[PsilocybeLarvae]

Может какая то организация которая в ближайшем будущем намеревается делать большие расходы. Например устраивать революцию.

или ввести систему социальных карточек

[darrel]

1. Спекуляция (наиболее вероятно) - лето, значит больше денег тратится на поездки и все такое. Народ меняет доллары на драмы, поскольку все свои сбережения в зелененьких держат. Дисапора, опять-таки, в отпуск приезжат. Словом, предложение превышает нормальный спрос, а тот кто может контролировать рынок еще больше сбивает цену чтобы по осени заработать.

2. Второй вариант (менее желаемый) - спад в торговле. Завоз товара сократился, значит сократилась и потребность в конвертируемой валюте. Надо таможенную статистику посмотреть, но боюсь они за первый квартал только, только публиковали.

Если сезонные колебания - ничего страшного. Если надолго - ничего хорошего, поскольку падение доллара не означает, что в стране нет инфляции. Цены на потреб товары и дальше будут расти. При росте цен на топливо, что очевидно, будет и сельхоз продукция дорожать, и основные потреб товары. Так, что дай бог что бы долар подрос немного .... ну до 550 хотя бы.

[tig]

это он в обменниках только падает. а в магазинах замечали по сколько считают ? 560-565. столько он реально и стоит

[Monopole]

А возможно, что кто-то просто умышленно каким-то образом сбивает цену, чтоб закупить крупную партию долларов, а потом цена резко подскачет и от получит колосальный навар ?
Ведь такой сценарий, если я не ошибаюсь, однажды уже у нас был.

[acid]

495 на улицах. И практически нигде не продают доллар.

[Solger]

blin ja bankrot
ara inch kazelen mer petakan ajrer@ voncen menak iranc jebi masin mtacum, dollar@ inchnuma vochmi karevor apranqneri gin@ chi ishnum, u vochmek patasxanutjun ir vra chi vekalum vochmek chi xosum, varela petk TRRRANC

[acid]

Жизнь в Армении дорожает не по дням, а по часам.

[Tivin]

Боже мой, с ума сошли что-ли ?????? УЖАС, я банкрот..
Эх, хотя бы в евро получали бы, эли....

А чиновники скажут, вон, мол, драм крепнет, менк демк енк

[Gates]

Ja dumaju esli eto dejstvitel'no ukreplenie drama, a ne spekuljativnaja igra to i ceni nachnut padat'.