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Old 16.12.2004, 11:02   #1
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взято отсюда

For Armenia, deepening isolation and little hope
By Susan Sachs The New York Times
Wednesday, December 15, 2004

Landlocked and stuck in a cold war with two of its four neighbors, Armenia has rarely seemed so alone as in the past few months.

Citing terrorism concerns, Russia abruptly sealed its border with Georgia in September and kept it closed for nearly two months, effectively cutting off the road that was the main transit route for Armenian trade with Russia.

At the same time, Armenians had to watch from the sidelines as Azerbaijan and Georgia celebrated the completion of a large section of the pipeline to carry Caspian Sea oil to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. The $3 billion regional energy project bypasses Armenia entirely.

Another bitter pill came in October, when the European Union's executive commission recommended that Turkey start negotiations for full membership without first having to end its rail and land blockade of Armenia.

For many people in this impoverished country, the events added up to a scary reminder of their deepening isolation.

"If nothing changes, Armenia will be left as an island," said Levon Barseghyan, a political activist in Gyumri, a rundown town on the railroad line that was closed by Turkey in 1992. "Everyone will forget about Armenia."

As winter closes in, bringing the risk of new hardships in a country heavily dependent on imports and foreign aid, the prospects for change appear slim without outside intervention.

Armenia's long-running conflict with Azerbaijan, its oil-producing neighbor to the east, remains one of the more intractable problems left from the breakup of the Soviet Union.

Both countries claim Nagorno-Karabakh, a slice of land that is geographically inside the borders of Azerbaijan but is controlled by ethnic Armenian separatists. Their six-year war over Karabakh ended with a ceasefire in 1994, after 35,000 people were killed and an estimated one million people, most of them Azeri, became refugees.

Turkey, Armenia's big neighbor to the west, has backed its Turkic ally, Azerbaijan, and closed its land border with Armenia. Turkish leaders have said they would not reopen the border until Armenia takes steps to withdraw its troops from in and around Karabakh. Meanwhile, peace negotiations have stalled despite mediation efforts by Russia, France and the United States.

"On neither side is there a public mood that is conducive to compromise," said a western diplomat in Yerevan, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The stalemate has left Armenia boxed in from the east and the west, excluded from the giant Caspian Sea energy pipeline that should provide hefty transit fees for the other countries it passes through.

Turkish and Russian goods make their way to Armenia - Turkey is its seventh largest trading partner - but with the added cost of road transit through third countries like Georgia or by the planes that operate flights between Yerevan and Istanbul.

Georgia's roads, however, have sometimes been closed because of political instability or, as was the case this fall, because of action by Russia. Armenia's only other direct outlet is through Iran to the south, where trade has been hampered by a poor road network and lack of rail lines.

Given the impact of their unresolved conflict with Azerbaijan, Armenian officials have been eager to revive peace talks. But they have also have refused to make unilateral concessions on Karabakh, which they refer to as liberated Armenian territory, in exchange for Turkey's reopening of rail and road traffic.

"We won't trade off Karabakh for a railroad," said the foreign minister, Vardan Oskanyan, adding that Armenians have learned to cope with their isolation. "Things are evolving around us. Let it be."

Many Armenians, foreign donors and economists are not nearly as sanguine. While the economy has recovered from the near-total blockade on Armenia in the early 1990s, the gross domestic output is no higher than it was in 1988, before a devastating earthquake. A reopening of the eastern and western borders, according to international studies, would quickly boost its growth rate by as much as 50 percent.

Meanwhile, despite infusions of cash from Armenians living abroad that account for more than 20 percent of the country's income, nearly half of the country's 3 million people live in poverty on less than $2 a day. The limited opportunities have contributed to an exodus of working-age Armenians since independence 13 years ago, with some estimates putting the population loss at nearly 30 percent.

Such dire circumstances might be expected to provoke political unrest. But they have not noticeably weakened President Robert Kocharian, a Karabakh native and former commander of the separatist forces who was reelected to a second term last year.

"Every day the government tells us our economy can flourish without opening the Turkish border and without solving the Karabakh problem," said Aram Abrahamyan, editor of the Aravot daily newspaper. "And the government propaganda succeeds with the common people."

A very different scenario was predicted by a private research group called Armenia 2020, which has commissioned studies of the country's future based on a range of possible developments.

One prediction was based on the status quo continuing for another 10 years. It concluded that "if there are no changes, there is no prosperity," said Arashes Kazakhetsyan, the director of the group.

The Armenian government has focused much of its efforts on a two-pronged approach to Turkey. It has appealed directly to Turkish leaders to normalize relations. At the same time, it has tried to increase diplomatic pressure on Turkey, openly questioning Turkey's fitness to start European Union entry talks before it addresses Armenian grievances.

In an interview, Oskanyan said he did not understand why European leaders ignored what he called Turkey's "faults and shortcomings" with regard to Armenia. "What is regrettable," he said, "is that Europe is closing its eyes on Turkey's petulance."

Oskanyan stopped short of saying Turkey's bid should be rejected, although Armenian lobbying groups have been making that argument in Brussels. While Turkey has changed many of its policies over the last two years to win European Union acceptance, there has been no indication of a shift in its official line toward Armenia.

Private contacts between Turks and Armenians will continue to be encouraged, said a senior Turkish diplomat in Ankara. But the diplomat said the political impasse must be broken by Armenia. "We can't change our policy on the Azeris," he said. "So the first move has to come from Armenia. We would like to see an opening, even a small opening, on Nagorno-Karabakh."

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Old 16.12.2004, 11:08   #2
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Я просто не понимаю... то ли у меня очки слишком розовые, то ли еще что...
Да, трудно. Кто говорил, что должно быть легко?
Не все идеально. Многое нервирует.
Но лично мне здесь хорошо! Пока что, во всяком случае. Конечно не факт, что когда-нибудь плюну на все и уеду, благо возможность всегда найдется...
... просто такие вот статейки заставляют призадуматься. Может я сплю, и все, включая довольно хорошо оплачиваемую и интересную работу, разные возможности интересного времяпровождения, и тд, мне только снятся...?


Old 16.12.2004, 11:09   #3
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Сука.
Old 16.12.2004, 11:12   #4
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Блин! Присосалась, как пиявка.
Old 16.12.2004, 11:15   #5
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ну разве не сука....
то есть выходит что все наши экономические проблемы связаны только с Нагорным Карабахом...
типа отдайте Карабах, у бедет у вас много-много денежек...
А то что страна 70 лет была под СССР, это ей пофиг...
сколько бывших стран союза (ктоме конечно России) щас процветают ? У них что, тоже проблемы с Карабахом ?
Вобщем, с этой особой все ясно....
Old 16.12.2004, 11:19   #6
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Таких надо возбуждать и не трахать.
Old 16.12.2004, 11:37   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RAMZES
А то что страна 70 лет была под СССР, это ей пофиг...
и ? ну была, дальше что ? негодяи-коммунисты все природные ресурсы высосали, людей сгноили, а великую промышленность раздолбали ?
Old 16.12.2004, 11:38   #8
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на самом деле все ясно...
просто интересно чья она пешка (надо признать, высокооплачиваемая... )
*пусть хоть лопнут, но не будет в Армении ни розовой ни оранжевой революции... надоели, млин. хватит сколько западные "продвинутые" страны лезут в наши дела, и в дела стран "подобных" нашей...

Old 16.12.2004, 11:50   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tig
и ? ну была, дальше что ? негодяи-коммунисты все природные ресурсы высосали, людей сгноили, а великую промышленность раздолбали ?
нет, tig джан, просто не дали всему этому развицца
Old 16.12.2004, 12:05   #10
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коллега, чему не дали развиться ?
Old 16.12.2004, 12:06   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vega$
на самом деле все ясно...
просто интересно чья она пешка (надо признать, высокооплачиваемая... )
*пусть хоть лопнут, но не будет в Армении ни розовой ни оранжевой революции... надоели, млин. хватит сколько западные "продвинутые" страны лезут в наши дела, и в дела стран "подобных" нашей...

Ну а при чем тут "пешка", с чем конкретно в ее повествованиее Вы не согласны. Я ничего такого особенного не заметил.
Да революции роз у нас не будет до тех пор, пока не будет подходящего лидера. По слухам кое-кто из нашей доблестной оппозиции попросто "сожрал" те средства, которые выделили на осуществления туту грузинского сценария.
Old 16.12.2004, 12:10   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RAMZES
нет, tig джан, просто не дали всему этому развицца
А разве не именно в этот период, в период СССР, все это развивалось ? Разве не во впемена СССР открылись университеты, консерватория, опреный театр, картинная галерея, академия наук в Армении? Разве не в период СССР было построены все те объекты, которые сейчас благопорлучно разворованы или распроданы, электростанции, заводы, фабрики(ну, если не считать грандкендиев и иже с ним) ?
Может я тебя не правильно понял ?
Old 16.12.2004, 12:10   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tig
и ? ну была, дальше что ? негодяи-коммунисты все природные ресурсы высосали, людей сгноили, а великую промышленность раздолбали ?
Нет родной, 70 лет в людей насаждался совок, который, как оказалось, совсем не совместим с рациональным использованием природные ресурсов и с великой промышленностью. Пройдет пара-тройка поколений и тогда может быть что-то и пойдет на поправку.
Old 16.12.2004, 12:14   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tig
коллега, чему не дали развиться ?
как чему ? хотя бы той же промышленности
вы знаете, что во времена СССР вся промышленность была разбросана по всему союзу так, что например одно предприятие находится в Москве, а другое, продукция которого зависит от первого - в Ереване. Все это очень хорошо работает вместе, но как только союз развалился, то оказалось, что то что производит Ереван - никому на хрен не надо, даже самому Еревану..
надеюсь я не слишком запутанно объяснил
Old 16.12.2004, 12:18   #15
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Совок, конечно сам по себе, по своему влиянию на общественное бытие и сознание людей был явлением отвратительным. Но тут-то, насколько я понял, речь была совсем о другом. Ведь совершенно очевидно, что не совок задерживал экономическое и промышленное развитие Армении, если вообще можно говорить о какой-либо задержке.
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