Hey, ACID!
Thanks for putting the first fix into this
I agree to do the required moderation work but with your guidance at every step. I guess we have support from Indian TWIN Forum where I am well-connected to the Indian tech writing GURUS and some other people on their list.
Am presently employed at Virage Logic and there are about 80 people who will be posting their messages on this list too. There are also about 50 people I know from various US writers forums and some other people from Framers list also. Assume, what will be the peak point for the ARMKB too.
Here's a broad view of my goals. There were about 50,000 Technical Writing jobs in the US in 2002. I have picked up this information from U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. For details, refer to
http://www.bls.gov/oco/ocos089.htm
Compare that with 4000 Technical Writing jobs available in India today! This number is my personal estimate based on the fact that TWIN has about 1200 members and the assumption that the membership covers only 35% of the industry's total jobs.
Now, if 20% of US jobs come not to India (because the rates of indian salaries are not attractive anymore because they are 1/3 less than US salaries), but to Armenia (for whatever reason!) in coming 2 years, there could be a demand for at least 8,000 to 10,000 more technical writers in Armenia. Any guesses on what can happen?
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Here is my *guesswork*
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1. There will be good demand for Technical Writing training courses.
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2. Companies will try to attract good candidates. Job ads will go up.
Assuming that 8,000 jobs are created in 2 years - 4000 per year - 4000/52 =
76 jobs will be created every week. TWIN Job ads can go up to at least 17-18 per week.
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3. The compensation package will increase till it becomes non-reasonable
and will come down again (obviously!). Question is, what will be the peak
point? I think it can be half of that of the same job being paid in the US
at that time. The packages will be made up of long-term components to ensure that the candidates will stay for longer time. For example, stock
options or sponsorships.
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4. The possible increases can lead to many candidates changing jobs every -
There will be job changes every 6 to 10 months. This will make team formation difficult and will reduce success rate. This will push the demand for senior writers who can manage teams!
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5. Looking at the demand, many professionals from parallel streams (journalism, programming, ID, medicine, training and so on) will enter Technical Writing.
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6. If companies are not able to retain talent, demand for contractors will increase. That will create good freelancing opportunities. But most companies will insist on 6 to 12 month contracts.
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7. If companies are not able to find talent, demand for Technical Writing Service Providers (TWSP) will increase. But they will have to find ways to retain talent as well.
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8. If none of the arrangement works, some of the the jobs will go to other
countries or back to USA.
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Actually, the future tense is not required. All this is happening! What do you say?
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