Bush or Kerry

[PsilocybeLarvae]

Your election predictions go here.

[Сизиф]

Bush.

[PsilocybeLarvae]

The final battle begins

Nov 1st 2004
From The Economist Global Agenda


The Bush and Kerry campaigns have launched last-minute blitzes, and voters are coming under a barrage of television commercials and get-out-the-vote efforts. With our new poll showing Mr Kerry just three points ahead, the race remains tight

THE presidential election has entered its final two days, and remains tantalisingly too close to call. A final poll carried out for The Economist by YouGov, an internet pollster, of 2,903 registered voters, shows John Kerry leading George Bush, 50% to 47%, but within the survey’s margin of error. Most other polls show the race closer, or give Mr Bush a slight lead. With the election so finely balanced, both sides are mobilising enormous efforts to tip the balance.

In the final push, military metaphors are all the rage. The campaigns of Mr Bush and Mr Kerry are pouring unprecedented resources into the “air war”, flooding television sets in swing states with last-minute campaign advertisements estimated to cost some $60m. Meanwhile, each side is mobilising tens of thousands of paid workers and volunteers for the “ground war”, the get-out-the-vote (“GOTV”) operation.

As the two armies collide, however, it is the voters who are feeling shellshocked—particularly those in the crucial states that both candidates can win. The biggest of these are Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. Polls seem to show Mr Kerry ahead in the first two and Mr Bush leading in Florida, but none of them is safe to call. Other key toss-ups are Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and even usually Democratic-leaning Hawaii, which is running close.

Voters in these states may enjoy feeling that their vote counts, unlike those of their counterparts in safe states like New York and California (for Mr Kerry) and most of the South (for Mr Bush). But they are being exhausted by the efforts to woo them. Every advertising break on the television features a new ad from one of the campaigns. This is despite the fact that both campaigns acknowledge that it will be difficult to break through the noise with a new ad at this point.

Even if voters switch off their sets, they are not safe. Phones in swing states are ringing several times a day with recorded calls from the likes of Laura Bush, Bill Clinton, Rudy Giuliani, Al Gore and even Curt Schilling, a star pitcher for the Boston Red Sox baseball team. (Despite playing for a team in Mr Kerry’s hometown, Mr Schilling supports Mr Bush.) And if maddened swing-state voters unplug their phones, they may still get a knock at the door from one of tens of thousands of eager volunteers. Campaign pundits say that in a close race, it is these GOTV efforts that will win the election.

So which party has the better operation? The Democrats traditionally have an advantage in this area. They are also optimistic that the expected high turnout will favour them, as it has traditionally done. (They believe that Republican efforts to combat voter fraud are really just intended to keep turnout down, particularly among Democrat-leaning minority voters.) But the Republican ground campaign has come a long way in the past four years. In the 2000 election, Mr Bush bled support in the final weekend of the campaign. The Republicans saw this as a weakness in their ground-game, and have spent the past four years improving it. They will spend some $125m to get voters to show up on Tuesday for Mr Bush.

On Friday afternoon, a wild-card was thrown in the campaign when al-Jazeera, an Arabic satellite television station, broadcast a new video from Osama bin Laden—the first video confirming that the arch-terrorist is alive since December 2001. He addressed American voters directly, saying “your security is not in the hands of Kerry or Bush or al-Qaeda. Your security is in your own hands. Any nation that does not attack us will not be attacked.” But he implicitly threatened America too, saying that the reasons for his attacks of September 11th 2001 remain in place.

Both Mr Bush and Mr Kerry issued careful statements, each man repeating his dedication to fighting terrorism without cease. But it did not take long for both sides to begin trying to grab some electoral advantage. Mr Kerry reiterated that the Iraq war had taken the administration’s eye off Mr bin Laden. The Bush campaign responded with mock indignation that the senator did not at least observe twelve hours of truce on the subject. The Kerry campaign shot back that the White House had received news of the video on Friday morning, but Mr Bush had continued his attacks on Mr Kerry as soft on terrorism throughout the day before the video became public knowledge.

Most pundits seemed to hold that the issue would favour Mr Bush, who has long had a lead on his rival on the issue of terrorism. Betting markets on the election, such as the Iowa Electronic Markets and Tradesports.com, broke sharply for Mr Bush when the video aired. But over the weekend, opinion polls showed little movement, and the betting markets reversed themselves. They still give Mr Bush a slightly better chance of winning, though.

After the fiasco of the 2000 elections, the spectre of an undecided election hangs over both campaigns. With so many crucial states so close in the polls, thousands of lawyers and observers are on hand to monitor the voting. Democrats are up in arms about thousands of absentee ballots that went missing in the post in Broward County, Florida—a crucial Democratic bastion. Republicans believe that the Democrats may have registered many voters fraudulently. They hope to station challengers at swing-state polling stations, especially in Ohio, to question voters they believe may not be entitled to cast a ballot. However, on Monday two federal judges ruled in separate cases that this was unnecessary and would unduly slow the election, and banned the Ohio challengers. The Republicans planned an immediate appeal.

Whether the challengers are allowed into the polling stations or not, a 2002 election reform lets prospective voters who are challenged cast a “provisional” vote, the validity of which will be determined later, after which it will be added to the final tally if upheld. But different states are applying the provisional-voting rules differently—providing more potential fodder for the legions of lawyers if the poll is close. November 2nd may or may not be the end of the story.



Copyright © 2004 The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group.

[Երեխա]

Bush

[Obelix]

Although I wish with all my heart that Kerry wins, I still believe it is unlikely. I wouldn't call it a done job, but there must be a lot of surprises if kerry does pass.

[aramx]

Kerry [edited by PsilocybeLarvae]

aramx, with all due respect this is English Only section of the forum

[DaNYer]

Bush will win, no doubt... means i have to prepare to be sent to Iraq, Iran, Syria or Korea

[aramx]

oh, sorry, didn't notice the topic had been posted in the "English Only" section.
anyways, QERRRRRY. Because he is THE UNCLE.

[Obelix]

Because he is THE UNCLE.

I think due to the fact that in english the word UNCLE does not clarify which uncle (mother side or father side) is being mentioned, you have to stress it separately.

>Banyer
Are you a reservist?

[aramx]

he word UNCLE does not clarify which uncle (mother side or father side) is being mentioned

it makes no difference...

[Dita]

Bush will win...

[PsilocybeLarvae]

Bush Wins 2004 U.S. Presidential Election
Incumbent carries Electoral College, majority of popular vote



By Alexandra Abboud
Washington File Staff Writer



President George W. Bush on November 2 was re-elected president of the United States.

"Voters turned out in historic numbers and delivered a historic victory," Bush said in a November 3 speech to supporters in Washington. "America has spoken, and I'm humbled by the trust and the confidence of my fellow citizens. "

As of November 3, Bush had won 29 states and 274 electoral votes with results in Iowa and New Mexico remaining too close to call. "President Bush's decisive margin of victory makes this the first presidential election since 1988 in which the winner received a majority of the popular vote," said Andrew Card, Bush's chief of staff, on November 3. "And in this election, President Bush received more votes than any presidential candidate in our country's history."

Bush also won the state of Florida -- a state that was hotly contested in the 2000 election and a 2004 prize coveted by both candidates -- with 52 percent of the popular vote to Democratic candidate Senator John Kerry's 47 percent. Experts agreed that if either candidate won both Florida and Ohio they would secure the victory, and Bush did just that.

Bush led Kerry by about 140,000 votes in Ohio after the polls closed November 2, but uncounted provisional ballots resulted in delaying the official announcement of the winner. It was clear by November 3, however, that Kerry would not have enough votes to win the state even if the provisional ballots were included in the tally. As a result, the Kerry campaign conceded the election to Bush on November 3.

In his concession speech from Boston, Kerry said he spoke to the president and offered him and first lady Laura Bush his congratulations. "We talked about the danger of division in our country and the need ... for unity, for finding common ground and coming together," he said. "Today, I hope we can begin the healing."

In his speech to the nation, Bush echoed this theme of unity, reaching out to those who voted for Kerry, saying, "To make this nation stronger and better, I will need your support and I will work to earn it. I will do all I can do to deserve your trust. A new term is a new opportunity to reach out to the whole nation. We have one country, one Constitution, and one future that binds us."

The 2004 presidential election was marked by high voter turnout that resulted in long lines at many polling places even after the official closing time. Bush maintained a lead in the national popular vote throughout the evening, but the race appeared close as Kerry secured many of the country's most populous states, including New York and California, which together have 86 Electoral College votes.

In the end, however, Bush trumped Kerry's 256 electoral votes with wins throughout the South and Midwest, especially in Florida and Ohio, which earned him 274 electoral votes, enough to win the election even with the results from Iowa and New Hampshire still uncertain.